News

  • September 26 - 9:12 pm PDT

    There we have it, folks. I just finished the last of the polling released before this evening's debate. A few states switched out of tossup status, most notably New Jersey and Kansas after the recent Google poll. No states flipped between Republican and Democrat on the election map. This election season hasn't seen a lot of those so far -- just 27 in all. I'll make a separate post about them sometime.

    So with the campaign now entering the debate phase, we've been settled into a 272-266 electoral vote win for Clinton for a while. This could be slightly off though. There have been no polls of the Nebraska 2nd Congressional district, a potential electoral vote pickup for Clinton. I'm sure someone will put a poll in the field at some point (I'm looking at you, Omaha World-Herald), but until that point we'll have to wonder if there's a vote waiting to be had here. Probably not -- the Nebraska GOP revamped the district to make it more heavily Republican after Obama won its vote in 2008, but you never know.

    A few polls may trickle in over the next few days, but it'll likely be late this week or early next week before we know what effect the debates have on the race.

  • 2:19 pm

    Most forecasts have Clinton winning the election with anywhere from a 51% to 70% chance of winning. We're in agreement with this, as our model finds Clinton winning by 272-266. Not all models are in agreement though. The Washington Post explains one such model predicting a Trump win.

  • September 23 - 2:55 am

    The New York Times has a fascinating article about real-time election day projections for 2016. The media has an unofficial rule against announcing these during the day, in part because their results are not always accurate, and in part because they don't want to be accused of skewing how voting progresses during the day. Rather, the data is the province of the campaigns so they can better utilize resources during the day. (Example: Is turnout better than expected in district A? Redirect your "don't forget to vote!" callers to district B.)

    This year will be different. Political scientists, statisticians, and media companies will be providing updated information in real time from dawn to dusk for the presidential race and key Senate races. You likely won't find coverage of this on most of networks, but Slate has said they'll cover them. It should be interesting seeing what we learn.

  • 2:44 am

    Harry Enten from 538 presents the top-5 "must win" swing states for each candidate. In order of importance, they are...

    Trump: Iowa, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, and Nevada
    Clinton: Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Virginia, Pennsylvania

    Picking off a "must-win" state from the opponent's list while holding your own virtually guarantees victory.

  • 1:59 am

    Today's Google poll of Arkansas is why I dislike these national polls with small sample sizes in each state; they give erratic results. Today's pull has Hillary up a point in Arkansas with a 7.5% margin of error. No one, not even the Clinton campaign, thinks they are actually winning there or even have a shot at winning the state. Yet Google is sure of what it's finding as the last poll had the state tied. So either Google has tapped into the groundswell of support for their former First Lady, or something is messed with their questions or sampling. Or they're just unlucky with their findings in that state.

    And Kansas? Hillary up by 16 points? I sincerely doubt this. Yet all six Google polls have found Hillary leading in the state. True, Kansas has an above-average Mormon population which isn't sold on Trump, but I hardly think today's lead of 16 points is remotely accurate... up from 8 points in their last poll.

    Either way, I account for some of these erratic polls by not including any poll with at least a sample size of 100. After all, I don't want to call a state where few polls visit (say, Hawaii) for the wrong candidate just because a screwy Google poll with 50 voters and a 25 point margin of error comes out at the last minute.

    If I spend 200+ hours doing the data entry on this website only to discover my results on election day are screwy because of Google's polls I am going to be one pissed off hobbyist.

  • September 21 - 10:02 pm

    [Humor] Wow, the pollsters aren't kidding around any more.

All news

The latest polls

DateStatePollsterSampleClintonTrumpMoE
Added September 27
9/18 - 9/22North CarolinaMeredith College487 R38%35%4.43%
Added September 26
9/12 - 9/22WyomingCVoter International461 L29.2%65.1%??
9/12 - 9/22WisconsinCVoter International553 L49.8%46.4%??
Wisconsin flips from "strong Democrat" to "leans Democrat" on the campaign map.
9/12 - 9/22West VirginiaCVoter International466 L35.3%59.3%??
9/12 - 9/22District of ColumbiaCVoter International486 L80.5%14.3%??
9/12 - 9/22WashingtonCVoter International488 L52.3%42.6%??
9/12 - 9/22VirginiaCVoter International495 L45.6%49.5%??
9/12 - 9/22VermontCVoter International465 L60.4%35.7%??
9/12 - 9/22UtahCVoter International490 L27.8%66.3%??
9/12 - 9/22TexasCVoter International798 L39.1%56.1%??
9/12 - 9/22TennesseeCVoter International567 L38.1%56.8%??
9/12 - 9/22South DakotaCVoter International459 L40.6%55%??
9/12 - 9/22South CarolinaCVoter International571 L40.8%53.9%??
9/12 - 9/22Rhode IslandCVoter International455 L56.2%40.2%??
Rhode Island flips from "leans Democrat" to "strong Democrat" on the campaign map.
9/12 - 9/22PennsylvaniaCVoter International605 L47%48.3%??
9/12 - 9/22OregonCVoter International508 L50.5%43.5%??
9/12 - 9/22OklahomaCVoter International506 L32.1%63.7%??
9/12 - 9/22OhioCVoter International554 L47.5%48.5%??
9/12 - 9/22North DakotaCVoter International487 L35.5%56.6%??
9/12 - 9/22North CarolinaCVoter International610 L46.3%48.7%??
9/12 - 9/22New YorkCVoter International724 L57%39%??
9/12 - 9/22New MexicoCVoter International488 L49.6%44.5%??
New Mexico flips from "tossup" to "leans Democrat" on the campaign map.
9/12 - 9/22New JerseyCVoter International560 L56%39.9%??
New Jersey flips from "leans Democrat" to "strong Democrat" on the campaign map.
9/12 - 9/22New HampshireCVoter International493 L48.1%47.2%??
9/12 - 9/22NevadaCVoter International540 L46.8%46.1%??
9/12 - 9/22NebraskaCVoter International529 L36.9%58.6%??
9/12 - 9/22MontanaCVoter International493 L37.7%57.7%??
9/12 - 9/22MissouriCVoter International571 L43.5%52%??
9/12 - 9/22MississippiCVoter International512 L40.6%55%??
9/12 - 9/22MinnesotaCVoter International488 L50.1%46%??
9/12 - 9/22MichiganCVoter International549 L49.9%45.5%??
9/12 - 9/22MassachusettsCVoter International501 L56.2%40.1%??
9/12 - 9/22MarylandCVoter International531 L57.6%37.9%??
9/12 - 9/22MaineCVoter International460 L53.6%42.5%??
9/12 - 9/22LouisianaCVoter International533 L38.9%56.4%??
9/12 - 9/22KentuckyCVoter International523 L36.1%59.1%??
9/12 - 9/22KansasCVoter International518 L38.3%57.2%??
Kansas flips from "tossup" to "leans Republican" on the campaign map.
9/12 - 9/22IowaCVoter International481 L46.9%48.9%??
Iowa flips from "leans Republican" to "tossup" on the campaign map.
9/12 - 9/22IndianaCVoter International532 L40.9%54.4%??
9/12 - 9/22IdahoCVoter International479 L33%60.6%??
9/12 - 9/22IllinoisCVoter International657 L54.2%40.7%??
9/12 - 9/22HawaiiCVoter International460 L64%32.5%??
9/12 - 9/22GeorgiaCVoter International639 L42.8%50.6%??
9/12 - 9/22FloridaCVoter International764 L46.4%48.2%??
9/12 - 9/22DelawareCVoter International479 L54.2%42.4%??
9/12 - 9/22ConnecticutCVoter International512 L53.7%41.9%??
9/12 - 9/22ArkansasCVoter International483 L36%57.5%??
9/12 - 9/22ColoradoCVoter International538 L48.9%45.4%??
9/12 - 9/22CaliforniaCVoter International951 L57.2%38.1%??
9/12 - 9/22ArizonaCVoter International554 L41.7%51.8%??
9/12 - 9/22AlaskaCVoter International460 L40.1%54.9%??
9/12 - 9/22AlabamaCVoter International558 L36.1%58.4%??
9/23North CarolinaGravis Marketing (R)694 L44%43%3.7%
9/23MinnesotaGravis Marketing (R)906 L43%43%3.3%
Minnesota flips from "strong Democrat" to "leans Democrat" on the campaign map.
9/23PennsylvaniaGravis Marketing (R)949 L46%43%3.2%
9/21 - 9/23New YorkMarist676 L52%31%3.8%
9/20 - 9/22ArizonaData Orbital (R)550 L38%40%4.12%
9/12 - 9/23PennsylvaniaMercyhurst University420 L42%41%4.8%
9/15 - 9/20MassachusettsYouGov800 R
700 L
44%
47%
33%
34%
4.1%
4.3%
9/20 - 9/25New HampshireAmerican Research Group522 R46%42%4.2%
9/15 - 9/22OhioTarget Smart / William & Mary821 R
652 L
40%
40%
37%
37%
??
??
9/15 - 9/20FloridaCherry Communications (R)617 L43%41%4%
9/16 - 9/22North CarolinaIpsos264 L49%43%??
9/16 - 9/22CaliforniaIpsos705 L60%28%??
9/16 - 9/22OhioIpsos407 L46%43%??
9/16 - 9/22PennsylvaniaIpsos387 L46%46%??
9/16 - 9/22VirginiaIpsos452 L47%40%??
9/16 - 9/22FloridaIpsos811 L49%45%??
9/16 - 9/22TexasIpsos462 L33%48%??
9/16 - 9/22New YorkIpsos535 L53%34%??
9/16 - 9/22IllinoisIpsos426 L53%31%??
9/9 - 9/22MarylandIpsos435 L50%34%??
9/9 - 9/22New JerseyIpsos853 L50%32%??
New Jersey flips from "tossup" to "leans Democrat" on the campaign map.
9/9 - 9/22OregonIpsos381 L44%41%??
9/9 - 9/22ColoradoIpsos391 L42%44%??
9/9 - 9/22KentuckyIpsos322 L37%54%??
9/2 - 9/22LouisianaIpsos112 L28%52%??
9/21 - 9/22PennsylvaniaHarper Polling (R)500 L45%43%4.4%
9/22 - 9/24LouisianaJMC Analytics and Polling (R)905 L35%45%3.3%
9/20 - 9/22IowaLoras College491 L38%38%4.4%
Iowa flips from "tossup" to "leans Republican" on the campaign map.
9/16 - 9/20MinnesotaSurvey USA625 L46%39%4%
9/17 - 9/22North CarolinaHigh Point University404 L43%42%4.9%
9/15 - 9/23VirginiaChristopher Newport University1,003 L39%33%3.9%
9/20 - 9/25PennsylvaniaORC895 R
771 L
44%
45%
42%
44%
3.5%
3.5%
9/20 - 9/25ColoradoORC896 R
784 L
41%
41%
40%
42%
3.5%
3.5%
9/22 - 9/23OhioGravis Marketing (R)850 R42%43%3.4%
9/22 - 9/23ColoradoGravis Marketing (R)799 R37%41%3.5%
Added September 25
9/12 - 9/19UtahDan Jones & Assoc.820 L25%34%3.4%
9/8 - 9/10West VirginiaJust Win Strategies (R)600 L30%57%4%
9/15 - 9/20Maine (2nd CD)UNH Survey Center207 L34%48%??
9/15 - 9/20Maine (1st CD)UNH Survey Center206 L50%28%??
9/15 - 9/20MaineUNH Survey Center513 L40%36%4%
Maine flips from "leans Democrat" to "tossup" on the campaign map.
9/21 - 9/23MissouriYouGov1,087 L37%46%3.9%
9/21 - 9/23ColoradoYouGov991 L40%39%4.4%
9/21 - 9/23VirginiaYouGov1,237 L45%37%3.3%
Added September 24
9/19 - 9/23PennsylvaniaMuhlenberg486 L40%38%5%
9/21 - 9/22GeorgiaLandmark / Rosetta600 L42.9%46.5%4%
9/20 - 9/22GeorgiaJMC Analytics and Polling (R)600 L38%44%4%
Added September 23
9/10 - 9/19PennsylvaniaGreenberg Quinlan Rosner (D) & American Viewpoint (R)400 L46%38%4.9%
9/10 - 9/19NevadaGreenberg Quinlan Rosner (D) & American Viewpoint (R)400 L42%42%4.9%
9/10 - 9/19North CarolinaGreenberg Quinlan Rosner (D) & American Viewpoint (R)400 L44%40%4.9%
9/10 - 9/19OhioGreenberg Quinlan Rosner (D) & American Viewpoint (R)400 L39%41%4.9%
9/14 - 9/20WisconsinGoogle Consumer Surveys748 L42.22%24.49%3.68%
Wisconsin flips from "leans Democrat" to "strong Democrat" on the campaign map.
9/14 - 9/20WashingtonGoogle Consumer Surveys486 L36.97%28.2%4.55%
9/14 - 9/20VirginiaGoogle Consumer Surveys616 L36.26%36.84%4.05%
9/14 - 9/20UtahGoogle Consumer Surveys189 L27.93%24.07%7.32%
9/14 - 9/20TexasGoogle Consumer Surveys1,046 L28.94%42.35%3.1%
9/14 - 9/20TennesseeGoogle Consumer Surveys493 L28.63%41.49%4.52%
9/14 - 9/20South CarolinaGoogle Consumer Surveys368 L33.23%40.95%5.24%
9/14 - 9/20PennsylvaniaGoogle Consumer Surveys772 L34.81%36.05%3.61%
9/14 - 9/20OregonGoogle Consumer Surveys373 L40.19%28.11%5.2%
9/14 - 9/20OklahomaGoogle Consumer Surveys197 L27.82%44.2%7.12%
9/14 - 9/20OhioGoogle Consumer Surveys846 L33.76%32.71%3.46%
9/14 - 9/20New YorkGoogle Consumer Surveys844 L41.56%28.23%3.46%
9/14 - 9/20NevadaGoogle Consumer Surveys236 L32.23%33.54%6.53%
9/14 - 9/20New MexicoGoogle Consumer Surveys216 L30.14%29.76%6.82%
New Mexico flips from "leans Democrat" to "tossup" on the campaign map.
9/14 - 9/20New JerseyGoogle Consumer Surveys655 L35.6%36.19%3.91%
New Jersey flips from "leans Democrat" to "tossup" on the campaign map.
9/14 - 9/20NebraskaGoogle Consumer Surveys202 L29.11%41.65%7.1%
9/14 - 9/20North CarolinaGoogle Consumer Surveys708 L32.31%39.54%3.78%
9/14 - 9/20MontanaGoogle Consumer Surveys159 L32.75%28.94%7.96%
9/14 - 9/20MississippiGoogle Consumer Surveys246 L17.14%54.84%6.38%
9/14 - 9/20MissouriGoogle Consumer Surveys588 L33.26%31.81%4.15%
9/14 - 9/20MinnesotaGoogle Consumer Surveys579 L37.2%26.85%4.17%
Minnesota flips from "leans Democrat" to "strong Democrat" on the campaign map.
9/14 - 9/20MichiganGoogle Consumer Surveys613 L34.85%33.58%4.06%
9/14 - 9/20MarylandGoogle Consumer Surveys355 L43.47%26.86%5.33%
9/14 - 9/20MassachusettsGoogle Consumer Surveys435 L50.03%23.57%4.83%
9/14 - 9/20LouisianaGoogle Consumer Surveys262 L25.28%53.54%6.22%
9/14 - 9/20KentuckyGoogle Consumer Surveys366 L29.61%40.67%5.26%
9/14 - 9/20KansasGoogle Consumer Surveys246 L41.3%25.59%6.4%
Kansas flips from "strong Republican" to "tossup" on the campaign map.
9/14 - 9/20IndianaGoogle Consumer Surveys607 L31.89%32.25%4.07%
9/14 - 9/20IllinoisGoogle Consumer Surveys1,027 L39.01%29.4%3.14%
9/14 - 9/20IowaGoogle Consumer Surveys387 L29.97%30.86%5.1%
Iowa flips from "leans Republican" to "tossup" on the campaign map.
9/14 - 9/20IdahoGoogle Consumer Surveys144 L18.72%43.51%8.35%
9/14 - 9/20GeorgiaGoogle Consumer Surveys543 L30.02%44.88%4.31%
9/14 - 9/20FloridaGoogle Consumer Surveys1,125 L30.25%43.12%2.99%
9/14 - 9/20ConnecticutGoogle Consumer Surveys307 L39%31.8%5.71%
9/14 - 9/20ColoradoGoogle Consumer Surveys550 L40.6%28.49%4.28%
9/14 - 9/20CaliforniaGoogle Consumer Surveys1,374 L46.39%28.05%2.72%
9/14 - 9/20ArizonaGoogle Consumer Surveys572 L37.46%32.1%4.2%
9/14 - 9/20ArkansasGoogle Consumer Surveys179 L36.41%35.41%7.49%
9/14 - 9/20AlabamaGoogle Consumer Surveys413 L18.35%55.11%4.94%
9/13 - 9/21VirginiaQuinnipiac659 L45%39%3.8%
9/13 - 9/21IowaQuinnipiac612 L37%44%4%
Iowa flips from "tossup" to "leans Republican" on the campaign map.
9/13 - 9/21GeorgiaQuinnipiac638 L40%47%3.9%
9/13 - 9/21ColoradoQuinnipiac644 L44%42%3.9%
9/15 - 9/17ArkansasHendrix College831 L34%55%3.4%
9/17 - 9/20MarylandGoucher College514 L58%25%4.3%
9/19 - 9/21FloridaSuffolk University500 L44%45%4.4%
9/19 - 9/20IllinoisEmerson College700 L44.5%38.7%3.6%
9/19 - 9/20WisconsinEmerson College700 L44.5%38.4%3.6%
9/11 - 9/20VirginiaRoanoke College841 L44%37%3.4%
9/14 - 9/18ColoradoFranklin & Marshall540 R
350 L
36%
41%
30%
34%
5.1%
6.3%
9/9 - 9/18CaliforniaPPIC1,055 L47%31%4.5%
9/15 - 9/17LouisianaSouthern Media & Opinions Research500 L32.6%48.9%4.4%
9/12 - 9/14WashingtonInsights West505 L38%28%4.4%
9/12 - 9/14NevadaInsights West398 L40%42%4.9%
9/12 - 9/14CaliforniaInsights West515 L57%30%4.3%
9/12 - 9/14ArizonaInsights West484 L33%37%4.5%
Added September 22
9/16 - 9/19North CarolinaSiena College782 L41%41%3.6%
9/18 - 9/20NevadaAnderson (D) & Shaw (R)805 R
704 L
38%
40%
39%
43%
3.5%
3.5%
9/18 - 9/20OhioAnderson (D) & Shaw (R)806 R
737 L
37%
37%
40%
42%
3.5%
3.5%
9/18 - 9/20North CarolinaAnderson (D) & Shaw (R)800 R
734 L
39%
40%
43%
45%
3.5%
3.5%
9/6 - 9/11WyomingDFM Research401 L19%54%4.9%
9/15 - 9/18WisconsinMarquette642 L44.2%41.9%4.8%
Wisconsin flips from "strong Democrat" to "leans Democrat" on the campaign map.
9/17 - 9/20New HampshireMonmouth University400 L47%38%4.9%
9/18 - 9/20North CarolinaPPP (D)1,024 L43%45%3.1%
All polls