News

  • August 24 - 9:59 pm PDT

    A huge data drop of polls this evening. Ipsos/Reuters is running the largest ongoing series of presidential polls ever with more than 10,000 voters surveyed each week. Some of the data posted here was learned from FiveThirtyEight's list of polls, as Reuters didn't make the sample sizes public. I presume 538 has enough clout they were able to ask for the information.

    With this data dump our list of states for which we have no polls has grown smaller; we have no polls for Hawaii, North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Wyoming, and the District of Columbia.

  • August 23 - 11:44 pm

    The latest poll of South Carolina from The Feldman Group was distributed by the South Carolina Democratic Party to the Rachel Maddow show. She reported the poll was tied 39-39 in a 4-way matchup, but never reported Johnson or Stein's support or the margin of error. Studying a screenshot she showed of the poll I was able to determine it was 16% undecided. So while I don't have Stein or Johnson listed for that poll, know that they are the numbers from the 4-way matchup and not the 2-way.

    Update: Huffington Pollster is reporting their support is 5% an 1%.

  • 3:20 pm

    The New York Times: The electoral battlegrounds of Arizona and Ohio are to begin voting on Oct. 12, nearly four weeks before Election Day. And North Carolina and Florida will be underway before Halloween.

  • 3:17 pm

    Larry Sabato: Clinton rises to 348 electoral votes.

    Update: Talking Points Memo says 326.

  • 3:16 pm

    The New York Times: Landslides do not really happen in presidential elections anymore.

  • 3:16 pm

    CBS: Can Hillary Clinton really win in Georgia?

  • 12:34 pm

    Evan McMullin finally appears on our list of candidates. A few days ago he scored 0% in a poll so there was no need to add him, but today he's at 9% in Utah. He's a former CIA operations officer and chief policy director for the House Republican Conference. He's also a Mormon which plays well in Utah. Although he'll appear on the ballot in multiple states, at this point he's essentially a protest vote focusing on a one state strategy.

    Small disclosure: this site's software isn't equipped to handle what happens if a third party candidate is winning a state. So if he shows any chance of winning a state I'm going to have a lot of work to do if this site is going to handle it correctly. So if I'm crossing my fingers that he never threatens to take the lead in Utah, it's not me wishing ill of his campaign -- I'm just trying to save myself 20-30 hours of programming time.

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The latest polls

DateStatePollsterSampleClintonTrumpMoE
Added August 27
8/19 - 8/25OhioIpsos392 L47%41%??
8/19 - 8/25CaliforniaIpsos518 L61%25%??
8/19 - 8/25TexasIpsos443 L32%45%??
8/19 - 8/25New YorkIpsos500 L53%31%??
8/19 - 8/25PennsylvaniaIpsos334 L50%43%??
8/19 - 8/25IllinoisIpsos366 L53%26%??
8/19 - 8/25FloridaIpsos666 L49%42%??
Added August 26
8/22 - 8/24FloridaMason-Dixon625 L44%42%4%
8/18 - 8/24Floridaicitizen600 R42%37%4%
Added August 25
8/22 - 8/24MichiganSuffolk University500 L44%37%4.4%
Michigan flips from "strong Democrat" to "leans Democrat" on the campaign map.
Added August 24
8/17 - 8/22FloridaCherry Communications (R)608 L41%44%4%
7/29 - 8/18IdahoIpsos186 L30%44%??
7/29 - 8/18AlabamaIpsos380 L36%55%??
7/29 - 8/18West VirginiaIpsos183 L39%48%??
7/29 - 8/18OregonIpsos444 L43%39%??
Oregon flips from "strong Democrat" to "leans Democrat" on the campaign map.
8/5 - 8/18WashingtonIpsos399 L45%33%??
8/5 - 8/18North CarolinaIpsos438 L47%45%??
7/29 - 8/18IowaIpsos369 L41%41%??
7/29 - 8/18ArkansasIpsos290 L40%45%??
Arkansas flips from "strong Republican" to "leans Republican" on the campaign map.
7/29 - 8/18ConnecticutIpsos358 L50%37%??
Connecticut flips from "leans Democrat" to "strong Democrat" on the campaign map.
8/5 - 8/18TennesseeIpsos398 L36%43%??
Tennessee flips from "strong Republican" to "leans Republican" on the campaign map.
7/29 - 8/18NebraskaIpsos185 L35%49%??
7/29 - 8/18KentuckyIpsos375 L41%47%??
7/29 - 8/18MarylandIpsos475 L53%29%??
7/29 - 8/18New HampshireIpsos163 L41%39%??
7/29 - 8/18UtahIpsos211 L33%44%??
7/29 - 8/18LouisianaIpsos424 L38%48%??
7/29 - 8/18ColoradoIpsos420 L42%39%??
7/29 - 8/18MaineIpsos210 L33%37%??
7/29 - 8/18South CarolinaIpsos288 L41%50%??
7/29 - 8/18OklahomaIpsos386 L29%58%??
7/29 - 8/18New MexicoIpsos115 L44%41%??
8/5 - 8/18ArizonaIpsos438 L39%47%??
Arizona flips from "tossup" to "leans Republican" on the campaign map.
8/5 - 8/18MassachusettsIpsos495 L53%30%??
7/29 - 8/18KansasIpsos333 L37%48%??
Kansas flips from "strong Republican" to "leans Republican" on the campaign map.
8/5 - 8/18IndianaIpsos335 L36%54%??
7/29 - 8/18DelawareIpsos117 L44%22%??
8/5 - 8/18MissouriIpsos365 L46%41%??
7/29 - 8/18MontanaIpsos100 L40%47%??
Montana flips from "strong Republican" to "leans Republican" on the campaign map.
7/29 - 8/18MississippiIpsos214 L38%52%??
7/29 - 8/18NevadaIpsos350 L40%38%??
8/5 - 8/18VirginiaIpsos643 L45%39%??
8/5 - 8/18GeorgiaIpsos522 L42%46%??
8/5 - 8/18MinnesotaIpsos541 L42%34%??
Minnesota flips from "leans Democrat" to "strong Democrat" on the campaign map.
8/12 - 8/18FloridaIpsos1,216 L49%41%??
8/12 - 8/18IllinoisIpsos788 L56%30%??
8/12 - 8/18OhioIpsos844 L45%39%??
8/5 - 8/18New JerseyIpsos765 L46%33%??
8/12 - 8/18PennsylvaniaIpsos771 L46%45%??
8/5 - 8/18WisconsinIpsos512 L38%37%??
8/5 - 8/18MichiganIpsos630 L44%43%??
8/12 - 8/18TexasIpsos915 L32%46%??
Texas flips from "leans Republican" to "strong Republican" on the campaign map.
8/12 - 8/18CaliforniaIpsos1,203 L63%26%??
8/12 - 8/18New YorkIpsos1,006 L52%30%??
8/18 - 8/23North CarolinaORC912 R
803 L
44%
45%
43%
45%
3.5%
3.5%
8/18 - 8/23ArizonaORC842 R
809 L
38%
38%
43%
45%
3.5%
3.5%
8/19 - 8/22FloridaFlorida Atlantic University1,200 L41%43%2.7%
8/19 - 8/21New MexicoPPP (D)1,103 L40%31%??
8/20 - 8/23North CarolinaMonmouth University401 L44%42%4.9%
Added August 23
8/18 - 8/21South CarolinaFeldman Group (D)600 L39%39%??
8/7 - 8/17VirginiaRoanoke College803 L48%32%3.5%
8/19 - 8/21UtahPPP (D)1,018 L24%39%3.1%
8/19 - 8/22MissouriMonmouth University401 L43%44%4.9%
Missouri flips from "leans Republican" to "tossup" on the campaign map.
8/14 - 8/18FloridaSaint Leo University1,380 L51.7%37.7%3%
Florida flips from "tossup" to "leans Democrat" on the campaign map.
All polls